A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
